01 Definition
Variance (or volatility) refers to the unpredictable swings in betting results that occur even with a solid edge. A strategy with 70% hit rate will sometimes have days with 3/10 wins and others with 9/10. Over small samples, results can deviate dramatically from expectations. Variance decreases as sample size increases.
02 Example
Your signal feed should hit 71% over 1,000+ signals. But in any given week of 30 signals, you might hit 50% or 90%. Both are normal variance. A 10-bet losing streak with a 71% hit rate has about a 0.02% chance — rare but will happen eventually.
03 Why It Matters
Variance is why bankroll management exists. Without understanding variance, you might abandon a profitable strategy during a normal losing streak, or overcommit to a lucky winning streak. Professional bettors expect and plan for variance.
04 How thetipster.xyz Uses This
We publish our worst days and months alongside our best ones. Our max drawdown is -4.2%. We educate tipsters to expect variance and not to panic during inevitable cold streaks. The edge is in the volume, not individual signals.
Related Terms
See Variance in action
Our live signal feed applies these concepts in real time. 71.3% hit rate, +21.4% ROI on flat stakes across 1,800+ signals.