01 Definition
Value betting is a strategy where you only bet when you've identified that the bookmaker's odds are "wrong" — specifically, when the implied probability is lower than the actual probability of the event occurring. It's the core principle behind profitable long-term betting.
02 Example
A bookmaker prices Over 1.5 Goals at 1.72 (implied probability: 58.1%). Your analysis shows the true probability is 68%. The excess 9.9% is your "edge." Over many such bets, that edge compounds into profit.
03 Why It Matters
Value betting is the only mathematically proven way to beat bookmakers long-term. Without value, you're relying on luck. With value, you have mathematics on your side — and over sufficient sample sizes, math always wins.
04 How thetipster.xyz Uses This
thetipster.xyz is fundamentally a value betting detection system. Every signal represents a moment where our model has identified that the live odds for an in-play over market are offering value. We don't predict winners — we detect mispriced odds.
Related Terms
See Value in action
Our live signal feed applies these concepts in real time. 71.3% hit rate, +21.4% ROI on flat stakes across 1,800+ signals.