01 Definition
A +EV bet is one where the probability of winning multiplied by the odds exceeds 1.0. In simple terms: you're getting better odds than the event's true probability warrants. +EV is the fundamental requirement for long-term profitability.
02 Example
Over 2.5 Goals is priced at 2.10 (implied: 47.6%). Your model calculates the true probability at 55%. EV = (0.55 × 2.10) - 1 = +15.5%. This is a +EV bet — you expect to make 15.5 cents per dollar over time.
03 Why It Matters
Positive EV is the North Star of professional betting. If every bet you place is +EV, you will be profitable long-term. The law of large numbers guarantees it. The question is whether you can consistently identify +EV opportunities — that's the hard part.
04 How thetipster.xyz Uses This
We only send +EV signals. Every single alert from our system has been verified to have positive expected value based on our model's probability calculations vs the current live odds. Zero exceptions.
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