01 Definition
A -EV bet is one where the odds offered are worse than the true probability of the event. Over enough bets, -EV wagers guarantee a loss. The vast majority of bets placed by recreational bettors are -EV because bookmaker margins ensure it.
02 Example
A favorite to win is priced at 1.35 (implied: 74.1%). The true probability is 72%. EV = (0.72 × 1.35) - 1 = -2.8%. This bet loses 2.8 cents per dollar long-term. Looks "safe" but is mathematically a losing proposition.
03 Why It Matters
Understanding -EV is crucial for knowing what NOT to bet. Most "sure things" and "safe picks" are actually -EV. The bookmaker has priced them accurately (or overpriced them). Avoiding -EV is just as important as finding +EV.
04 How thetipster.xyz Uses This
Our algorithm automatically filters out -EV situations. We never send a signal unless the EV is positive. This means you might receive fewer signals on some days, but every signal carries genuine mathematical edge.
Related Terms
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