01 Definition
The Kelly Criterion determines the theoretically optimal percentage of your bankroll to wager based on your edge and the odds. Formula: Kelly% = (bp - q) / b, where b = decimal odds - 1, p = probability of winning, q = probability of losing (1 - p). It maximizes long-term bankroll growth.
02 Example
With odds of 1.72 (b = 0.72) and a true win probability of 68% (p = 0.68, q = 0.32): Kelly% = (0.72 × 0.68 - 0.32) / 0.72 = 23.5%. Most professionals use "fractional Kelly" (quarter or half Kelly) to reduce variance.
03 Why It Matters
Kelly provides a mathematical ceiling for bet sizing. Betting more than Kelly guarantees reduced long-term returns. Betting less is safer but slower. It's the bridge between "I have an edge" and "how much should I bet."
04 How thetipster.xyz Uses This
We provide EV and confidence data per signal so advanced users can calculate their own Kelly stake. However, for simplicity and safety, we recommend flat stakes for most tipsters using our feed — it's more predictable and easier for your subscribers to follow.
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