01 Definition
Implied probability converts betting odds into a percentage that represents how likely an outcome is according to the market. For decimal odds: Implied Probability = 1 ÷ Odds. It includes the bookmaker's margin (vig), so the total implied probability across all outcomes will exceed 100%.
02 Example
Odds of 1.50 imply a probability of 66.7% (1 ÷ 1.50). If you've calculated the true probability is 75%, the odds are offering value — the bookmaker is underestimating the likelihood, giving you a +EV opportunity.
03 Why It Matters
Implied probability is the bridge between odds and expected value. Without converting odds to probability, you can't determine if a bet offers value. It's the language that connects what bookmakers think will happen to what your model says will happen.
04 How thetipster.xyz Uses This
Our core process: (1) convert live odds to implied probability, (2) compare against our model's calculated probability, (3) if the difference exceeds our minimum EV threshold, trigger a signal. It's that simple in theory — the hard part is having a model that's more accurate than the bookmaker.
Related Terms
See Implied in action
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