01 Definition
Expected value (EV) is a mathematical concept that represents the long-term average outcome of a bet if you placed it an infinite number of times. A positive EV (+EV) means the bet is profitable over time; negative EV (-EV) means it loses money. The formula is: EV = (Probability × Odds) - 1.
02 Example
If a bet has odds of 1.72 and the true probability of winning is 68%, the EV = (0.68 × 1.72) - 1 = +0.17 or +17%. For every $100 wagered, you'd expect to profit $17 on average.
03 Why It Matters
EV is the single most important metric in professional betting. Win rate alone is meaningless without considering the odds. A tipster with a 55% hit rate at average odds of 2.10 will crush a tipster with 75% at odds of 1.20.
04 How thetipster.xyz Uses This
Every signal we send includes the calculated expected value. Our algorithm only triggers when the detected EV exceeds a minimum threshold, ensuring every alert has a verified mathematical edge. Our average EV across 1,800+ signals is +6.8%.
Related Terms
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