About

We don't sell picks.
We sell the edge behind them.

thetipster.xyz is signal infrastructure for tipsters. A proprietary algorithm that detects +EV opportunities in live football markets — and delivers them to your Telegram channel before the odds collapse.

The origin

We started as a sports analytics project, building xG-based models for in-play football markets. The question was simple: can we detect, in real time, when the market underprices the probability of one more goal?

After 18 months of backtesting and 14 months of live signals, the answer is clear: yes, consistently, across Europe's top leagues.

But we realized we weren't good at being tipsters. Going from a model to an audience takes a different skill set — content, community, trust-building. So we flipped the model: instead of competing with tipsters, we'd power them.

Today, thetipster.xyz is a B2B signal feed. We detect the opportunity. You decide if it goes to your audience. Your channel, your brand, our brain.

The Algorithm

How it works (without giving away the secret)

Real-time match data ingestion

We process live match events — shots, possession changes, pressure metrics, xG flow — across 20+ leagues simultaneously.

Probability modeling

Our model calculates the true probability of one more goal in the remaining minutes, factoring in match state, team form, tactical patterns, and historical patterns in similar game states.

Value detection

When the bookmaker's implied probability is significantly lower than our model's — that's a +EV signal. We only fire when the edge is clear and the confidence threshold is met.

Instant delivery

Signal is packaged and delivered to your Telegram channel in under 2 seconds. In live markets, speed is value.

Principles

What we believe

Specialization over breadth

We don't cover 20 sports with surface-level models. We go deep on one niche — in-play football totals — and dominate it.

Transparency as default

Every signal is logged. Every outcome is published. We don't hide losses or cherry-pick screenshots. The data speaks.

Infrastructure, not picks

We're not competing with tipsters. We power them. Our job is to provide signal intelligence, not build audiences.

Simplicity as a feature

No API keys, no code, no complex integrations. If it takes more than 2 minutes to set up, we haven't done our job.

+18 · Responsible Betting

Sports betting involves risk of total loss. We provide data-driven signals, not financial advice. We encourage all tipsters to include responsible gambling disclaimers in their content. Never risk more than you can afford to lose.

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We don't sell picks.We sell the edge behind them.